Maybe Reason hasn't been tried?

On Coin-flips and red-pilling normies

There’s a story which is often taken as a cause for mere laughter and/or as a blackpill.

I think it’s actually inspiring.

I.

Back in 2012, The British Royal Statistical Society commissioned a face-to-face test of the numeracy of an allegedly representative sample of 97 Members of Parliament with the multiple choice question:

"If you spin a coin twice, what is the probability of getting two heads?”

It may seem like an easy one.

But only 40% of MPs got it right!

¹

If this makes you depressed, it may console you to know that the the arc of parliamentary numeracy bends towards basic competence. Ten years later when they tried again -

52% of MPs got it right!

It may take a long time but maybe one day those who live in Britain, themselves innumerate (25% get it right) might enjoy the benefits of numerate rule. Or maybe not. The later round was not face to face but virtual because COVID.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the improvement was primarily an artifact of cheating.

II.

What are we to make of this? Are politicians simply stupid?

But they are probably (and I say this with little actual evidence and an openness to being convinced) not stupid in the sense of literally lacking the raw calculation ability to get the right answer. What we are looking at here, is more like a stupidly simple cognitive glitch.

"If you spin a coin twice,

what is the probability of getting two heads?”

Twice sounds like Two so 2.

Probability so we start at 100%.

100/2 = 50%. Answer = 50%.

- A British MP level thought