I think there is something in your theory that end of atranged marriage and rose of individual mating choice among Asians has left them in an 'evolutionary mismatch'.
I noted to myself once that Iranian chaps are physically unattractive. Maybe it's a gene-culture thing that arose because they didn't have to compete for females on basis of looks. East Asian men are handsomer I guess but maybe something related obtains with them at some level: they can't attract women in open market because they haven't got the goods physically.
I have read that Muslim birthrates among *some* groups (not pakis) in the West are starting to decline (maybe along with decline of arranged marriage?). If they really start to tank it might serve to support your theory about effect of free marriage choice on east asian fertility.
If you want to attribute the variance in some trait in a population to variance in genetics then you must measure the heritability of the trait in question. Otherwise you are musing over a black box. Countless differences in environment could ultimately lead to roughly the same fertility rate overall. This may seem unlikely to you, but it is no more unlikely than the variance in a trait as social and complex as fertility being entirely decided by genes.
It would be nice if you could get the stats of the fertility of white men-asian women vs Asian man-white women marriages/couples to check your theory. And also any other combinations of races would be interesting too.
An interesting theory, but seems at best very incomplete and at worst very misleading. East Asians were reproducing a lot more in the not too distant past. Age of marriage for East Asians is now terrible. They are too busy getting their multiple degrees and then trying to save up something for a house (nearly impossible without parental support). Get these women married in their early 20s with their own home and they will have multiple kids. Arranged marriages (where parents and other matchmaker types think about the match very carefully and usually kids have some sort of veto right) have worked pretty well historically.
Mike at Imperium Press on substack has written on this topic of Asian fertility and he has an interesting theory that it comes down to them being exposed to fully fledged modern liberalism in a very compressed time frame, which, like a person with no antibodies being exposed to a deadly disease, is ravaging them. What liberalism did to their fertility rates it is just starting to do in the Muslim and African worlds. Anecdotally, it seems so far that the more advanced the liberalism an unexposed society is exposed to, the harder and quicker the resulting fertility collapse.
The OKcupid data is not a good reference. Many niche ethnic dating apps for people looking to date in their own community, so the interpretation is distorted.
Also, don't you think its a little bold to say East Asians hate each other and their families? Perhaps there are other factors at play here with declining birth rates? I suspect its mainly economics or maybe anime. Maybe you can check the birth rate from post WW2 to now and see when the decline started.
I know It seemed to have started around 1970 in Japan. Personally I think its urbanization. We know overcrowding, apartment blocks are terrible for fertility. Also I think urban life could disconnect you from nature, and disrupt the passing of religion.
I'm sure that urbanism is part of the problem. I live in rural/small town Japan. I see lots of 2 or 3 children families. You don't see them in Tokyo (which I visit moderately frequently)
>The OKcupid data is not a good reference. Many niche ethnic dating apps for people looking to date in their own community, so the interpretation is distorted.
Yes, this point isn't made often enough when people bring up this data. When you put together a sample of whites, at least some of whom are not really open to interracial dating, with a sample of people of other races who have been directly self-selected for an interest in dating whites, you can't assume this translates to the dynamics of interracial dating in the population as a whole.
Though I still think the East Asian female outmarriage rate speaks for itself. That's an independent and much more powerful confirmation of this point. Plus it aligns with common anecdotal experience. I'm much skeptical of the OKcupid data indicating that, for example, black women are more receptive to white men than black men. I don't think I've ever seen or heard anything, in data or in life, that would lead me to believe this.
Brother, American Asians are nothing like Asians from Asia. I lived in Asia for 3 years. American Asians are completely Americanized. The reasons for their low fertility are totally different than reasons in America, e.g. everyone cramming themselves into Tokyo and Seoul and leaving no space for families. Also their elitist college culture. You cannot get a job that provides money to raise a family unless you graduate a top uni.
Thats a neat theory, but I have some questions. East asian fertility is very low indeed, but is that dramatically different from say Europe? Spain, Italy, Germany, all have lower fertility then Japan, in the case of Spain it is around 1.1. All these countries have a substantial boost from millions of muslisms and sub-saharans. Also all these countries sit squarely within the Hajnal line.
America already has a group with rock-bottom fertility levels, high outbreeding (70% according to Pew) and a substantial edge above regular whites IQ-wise: Ashkenazis. They also are a solid Democrat block. I dont see how they fit the general theory. While ghettoized for most of their History, within their community there is no evidence of any east-asian tier forced marriage trend.
There is certainly more to be said, but all in all the genetic argument for fertility doesnt seem to work outside of east-asians, which makes it sound as a sort of "just-so-story". Additional empirical evidence is clearly needed to answer this hypothesis.
On a final note, there also seems to be a tad much hyperbole. It is clear the so called "East Asian Question" mirrors quite closely with the aforementioned ashkes. If anything east asians seem even less politicaly mobilized, certainly less moneyed and lack demographic impetus. Can you offer a vision of the worst case scenario? Abolishing DIE on admissions, replacing blacks and hispanics for asians? San Francisco becoming somehow more leftwing? I should say I dont see all asians equally though, I do think Indian migration will pose a big problem if unaddressed. The "East Asian Question" on the other hand, likely wont amount to much.
Perhaps, despite enormous cultural differences, the specific cultural elements affecting fertility in East Asia are also present in the West. All those countries are capitalists, materialist and have low religiosity.
I find all of the handwringing about the upcoming population declines rather tedious and boring. After all, demographic trends can change and reverse course. There are more people in Japan than there were before the war, and the Chinese sure as heck aren’t about to go extinct.
Just reading this now. This is going to be a tough pill to swallow for some, but one of the cures to population decline is going to be 15-25% Bantu admixture. Getting the commendable Bantu extraversion, libidinality, and improvisitionalism without the attendant dysfunctions is the trick.
I'm definitely curious to read the rest of this series. My default feeling toward East Asian immigrants is fairly positive since they are smart and make good allies against the affirmative action regime, but their tendency toward bootlicking is admittedly a concern. If it were up to me I would probably selectively admit only Asians who had more disagreeable and independent personalities, although I'm not sure how to measure that since we don't seem to have equivalent tests for traits other than IQ.
I know I have used the OKCUPID study as a reference myself before but embarrassingly, it just now occurred to me that there is a heavy cultural selection bias in it. Not, perhaps, in the number of replies themselves but the selection out of any racial category that actually ends up using the app, or any dating app. I’m not sure about how or if other Asian immigrant communities in the west engage in any sort of “arranged” dating/marriages but I know that it is actually extremely common in Indian immigrants. In my experience, the Indian guys and gals that are the most attractive don’t really bother with dating apps because our culture still heavily promotes marriages over casual relationships and hookups. The only Indian guys that are out to try their luck on dating apps are either the intelligent eccentrics or the extremely unattractive guys, either of which don’t fit the typical expectations on all the marriage oriented matchmaking forums. For East Asians that I know, they do actually prefer dating apps a lot more so this kind of bias might not exist, but the OKCUPID study is usually used to gauge relative attractiveness among different races and that perception is definitely skewed in that study.
I always thought that high IQ populations were more environmentally sensitive to things like urbanization or economic pressures. That's not crazy right?
If modern East Asian now have free choice of whether or not to mate won't that mean that any evolved anti natalism will quickly evolve away again? By now we can assume that any Japanese who don't want children will actually not get children, and any who have an inborn drive for it can probably afford to get at least two.
And a historical quibble: Bound feet only became the norm in china during the Quing dynasty, so it was only a big thing for ca 200 years. And the Han chinese also forbade cousin marriages.
I think there is something in your theory that end of atranged marriage and rose of individual mating choice among Asians has left them in an 'evolutionary mismatch'.
I noted to myself once that Iranian chaps are physically unattractive. Maybe it's a gene-culture thing that arose because they didn't have to compete for females on basis of looks. East Asian men are handsomer I guess but maybe something related obtains with them at some level: they can't attract women in open market because they haven't got the goods physically.
I have read that Muslim birthrates among *some* groups (not pakis) in the West are starting to decline (maybe along with decline of arranged marriage?). If they really start to tank it might serve to support your theory about effect of free marriage choice on east asian fertility.
No idea if the above is cogent I'm very tired
If you want to attribute the variance in some trait in a population to variance in genetics then you must measure the heritability of the trait in question. Otherwise you are musing over a black box. Countless differences in environment could ultimately lead to roughly the same fertility rate overall. This may seem unlikely to you, but it is no more unlikely than the variance in a trait as social and complex as fertility being entirely decided by genes.
It would be nice if you could get the stats of the fertility of white men-asian women vs Asian man-white women marriages/couples to check your theory. And also any other combinations of races would be interesting too.
Great essay. I've subscribed!
An interesting theory, but seems at best very incomplete and at worst very misleading. East Asians were reproducing a lot more in the not too distant past. Age of marriage for East Asians is now terrible. They are too busy getting their multiple degrees and then trying to save up something for a house (nearly impossible without parental support). Get these women married in their early 20s with their own home and they will have multiple kids. Arranged marriages (where parents and other matchmaker types think about the match very carefully and usually kids have some sort of veto right) have worked pretty well historically.
Mike at Imperium Press on substack has written on this topic of Asian fertility and he has an interesting theory that it comes down to them being exposed to fully fledged modern liberalism in a very compressed time frame, which, like a person with no antibodies being exposed to a deadly disease, is ravaging them. What liberalism did to their fertility rates it is just starting to do in the Muslim and African worlds. Anecdotally, it seems so far that the more advanced the liberalism an unexposed society is exposed to, the harder and quicker the resulting fertility collapse.
The OKcupid data is not a good reference. Many niche ethnic dating apps for people looking to date in their own community, so the interpretation is distorted.
Also, don't you think its a little bold to say East Asians hate each other and their families? Perhaps there are other factors at play here with declining birth rates? I suspect its mainly economics or maybe anime. Maybe you can check the birth rate from post WW2 to now and see when the decline started.
I know It seemed to have started around 1970 in Japan. Personally I think its urbanization. We know overcrowding, apartment blocks are terrible for fertility. Also I think urban life could disconnect you from nature, and disrupt the passing of religion.
I'm sure that urbanism is part of the problem. I live in rural/small town Japan. I see lots of 2 or 3 children families. You don't see them in Tokyo (which I visit moderately frequently)
>The OKcupid data is not a good reference. Many niche ethnic dating apps for people looking to date in their own community, so the interpretation is distorted.
Yes, this point isn't made often enough when people bring up this data. When you put together a sample of whites, at least some of whom are not really open to interracial dating, with a sample of people of other races who have been directly self-selected for an interest in dating whites, you can't assume this translates to the dynamics of interracial dating in the population as a whole.
Though I still think the East Asian female outmarriage rate speaks for itself. That's an independent and much more powerful confirmation of this point. Plus it aligns with common anecdotal experience. I'm much skeptical of the OKcupid data indicating that, for example, black women are more receptive to white men than black men. I don't think I've ever seen or heard anything, in data or in life, that would lead me to believe this.
Brother, American Asians are nothing like Asians from Asia. I lived in Asia for 3 years. American Asians are completely Americanized. The reasons for their low fertility are totally different than reasons in America, e.g. everyone cramming themselves into Tokyo and Seoul and leaving no space for families. Also their elitist college culture. You cannot get a job that provides money to raise a family unless you graduate a top uni.
Thats a neat theory, but I have some questions. East asian fertility is very low indeed, but is that dramatically different from say Europe? Spain, Italy, Germany, all have lower fertility then Japan, in the case of Spain it is around 1.1. All these countries have a substantial boost from millions of muslisms and sub-saharans. Also all these countries sit squarely within the Hajnal line.
America already has a group with rock-bottom fertility levels, high outbreeding (70% according to Pew) and a substantial edge above regular whites IQ-wise: Ashkenazis. They also are a solid Democrat block. I dont see how they fit the general theory. While ghettoized for most of their History, within their community there is no evidence of any east-asian tier forced marriage trend.
There is certainly more to be said, but all in all the genetic argument for fertility doesnt seem to work outside of east-asians, which makes it sound as a sort of "just-so-story". Additional empirical evidence is clearly needed to answer this hypothesis.
On a final note, there also seems to be a tad much hyperbole. It is clear the so called "East Asian Question" mirrors quite closely with the aforementioned ashkes. If anything east asians seem even less politicaly mobilized, certainly less moneyed and lack demographic impetus. Can you offer a vision of the worst case scenario? Abolishing DIE on admissions, replacing blacks and hispanics for asians? San Francisco becoming somehow more leftwing? I should say I dont see all asians equally though, I do think Indian migration will pose a big problem if unaddressed. The "East Asian Question" on the other hand, likely wont amount to much.
Perhaps, despite enormous cultural differences, the specific cultural elements affecting fertility in East Asia are also present in the West. All those countries are capitalists, materialist and have low religiosity.
Genes are a manifestation of the spirit.
I find all of the handwringing about the upcoming population declines rather tedious and boring. After all, demographic trends can change and reverse course. There are more people in Japan than there were before the war, and the Chinese sure as heck aren’t about to go extinct.
Just reading this now. This is going to be a tough pill to swallow for some, but one of the cures to population decline is going to be 15-25% Bantu admixture. Getting the commendable Bantu extraversion, libidinality, and improvisitionalism without the attendant dysfunctions is the trick.
I'm definitely curious to read the rest of this series. My default feeling toward East Asian immigrants is fairly positive since they are smart and make good allies against the affirmative action regime, but their tendency toward bootlicking is admittedly a concern. If it were up to me I would probably selectively admit only Asians who had more disagreeable and independent personalities, although I'm not sure how to measure that since we don't seem to have equivalent tests for traits other than IQ.
Just accept the ones rejected by the Ivy League
I know I have used the OKCUPID study as a reference myself before but embarrassingly, it just now occurred to me that there is a heavy cultural selection bias in it. Not, perhaps, in the number of replies themselves but the selection out of any racial category that actually ends up using the app, or any dating app. I’m not sure about how or if other Asian immigrant communities in the west engage in any sort of “arranged” dating/marriages but I know that it is actually extremely common in Indian immigrants. In my experience, the Indian guys and gals that are the most attractive don’t really bother with dating apps because our culture still heavily promotes marriages over casual relationships and hookups. The only Indian guys that are out to try their luck on dating apps are either the intelligent eccentrics or the extremely unattractive guys, either of which don’t fit the typical expectations on all the marriage oriented matchmaking forums. For East Asians that I know, they do actually prefer dating apps a lot more so this kind of bias might not exist, but the OKCUPID study is usually used to gauge relative attractiveness among different races and that perception is definitely skewed in that study.
I always thought that high IQ populations were more environmentally sensitive to things like urbanization or economic pressures. That's not crazy right?
If modern East Asian now have free choice of whether or not to mate won't that mean that any evolved anti natalism will quickly evolve away again? By now we can assume that any Japanese who don't want children will actually not get children, and any who have an inborn drive for it can probably afford to get at least two.
And a historical quibble: Bound feet only became the norm in china during the Quing dynasty, so it was only a big thing for ca 200 years. And the Han chinese also forbade cousin marriages.